In what looks to be Clinton's year he'll have long coattails in the northeast. This will only increase the margin of victory for RI Dems but it just might be the only thing that saves John Kerry from getting beaten like a rented Land Rover. Anyway, I've outlined my picks and odds below. Don't call me, I'm not making book on these odds. This is just a recreational exercise. If my diction seems a little off its because I spent all afternoon trying to master the art of mixing with The Mayor's Own Margarita Mix. Here's a tip: I know the package says to mix water with the green powder before you add your favorite tequila, but it goes better if you just get yourself a big mug and put about an inch of the powder on the bottom and pour a bunch of Cuervo on top of it. Do it slow at first and the first few drops of tequila will form little green marbles at the bottom of the mug. It's really cool, and better than reading tea leaves if you REALLY wanna know who's gonna romp this November.

Dole is toast. I know it, you know it, the president knows it, and the American people know it, Christ , I think even Dole's even figured it out by now. Remember this is being written on Labor Day with Clinton ahead by 20 points in most polls. Alot could happen between now and November. Yeah, and monkeys could fly out of Rush Limbaugh's big fat ass. Dole's polls have him closer but we must remember the right's tendency to go into uber-denial when they know one of their guys is meat. Come to think of it 5 to 1 is a little slim. I certainly wouldn't lay a dime on Dole unless unlees I could find a reliable bookmaker who would give me 20 to 1 and spot Dole California's 54 electoral votes. Yeah there is always the chance that some damaging photos will surface to foil the Clinton campaign, but even if Bubba gets caught sneaking a waitress aboard Air Force One, the odds only drop to 3 to 1.

	RI. Senate	Reed pi to 1 to beat Some Doomed Republican	"Call me a liberal again and you're dead"

In a state of machine politics Jack Reed is a finely tuned Toro lawnmower. He'll be an undistinguished party-line senator to be sure, but he'll keep the federal revenue stream flowing through R.I. for years. Anytime someone tries to slander him with the "L" word, he can walk around the block in his marine uniform and have the Navy spend billions on some godawful thing in Newport. The populous will kneel before him, boring sonofabitch though he may be. It doesn't matter who wins the Republican primary, Reed will roll. Bank on it. It's just too bad this guy missed the New Deal.

	R.I. 1st Congressional District	Kennedy infinity to 1 to beat Anyone Foolish Enough to Run Against Him	"Stop this man before he's killed again"

Trivia Question: When was the last time a Kennedy lost an election? Think hard. No, Teddy losing primaries to a sitting president doesn't count. I like Patches. If you don't that's a shame because if you live in Rhode Island's 1st Congressional district he's gonna be your congressman for a while, at least until he's your senator. Patches isn't the sharpest knife in the drawer but unless someone kills him soon, he'll win this election and go on to take Chafee's seat in the senate in '98. I haven't even bothered to find out any of his opponents' names. For all I know I could be the Republican nominee. Does this kid need his own spaghetti sauce or what? By the way the answer to the trivia question is NEVER. No Kennedy has EVER lost an congressional or senatorial election. Now ask yourself why it is that the Republicans oppose any form of gun control.

	Massachusetts Senate	Kerry and Weld: even money	"Pardon me, but do you have any Grey Poupon?"

This one looks to be a "pick 'em" right through to November. A bizarre twist to this race is that it may come down to the issues as neither of these candidates is in any way likable. Regardless of any "man of the people" posturing either of these guys do between now and November, they're both stick-up-the-ass blue bloods. Their debates are sickening affairs, like two aging preppies arguing over whose Mercedes hit whose. Don't get me wrong, if you're registered to vote in Mass. go out and pull the lever for Kerry. No, he'd never have you over to his house for dinner but he'd never have Gingrich over either, something I understand Weld does quite often. I'm just saying that in a more just universe, these men would be drugged, stripped naked, and forced to fight to the death on Boston Common. I'm pulling heavily for Kerry.

Copyright © 1996 Rob Dunbar

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